superforecaster-skill
Installation
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Skill.md
Superforecaster Skill
Knowledge
Probabilistic forecasting using superforecasting methodology: Fermi decomposition, hierarchical Bayesian priors, Monte Carlo simulation, calibration tables, and tail risk decomposition with worked startup valuation examples.
VC Workflows
Deal SourcingDue Diligence
Tasks
financial analysismarket sizingrisk assessment
Notes
17.0KB. Superforecasting cookbook with startup-specific domain (power law outcomes, stage survival rates). Prediction market references, output format templates.
Tags
#forecasting#probability#monte-carlo#fermi#calibration#knowledge-skill